Research on global CO2 storage targets has found previous models missed constraints to CCS scale-up, such as financing and geological capacity. Despite this, the North Sea continues to look promising as a potential hub for Europe – but we should bear in mind the limitations.

Reliable figures support new CCS incentives, but policy holds power to help or hinder growth.

A team from Imperial College London (ICL) have been evaluating the feasibility of scaling up CO2 storage in the North Sea and beyond. They are considering crucial geological and socio-economic aspects that have not always been modelled before.

Global projections

The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report estimated a broad range for global storage rates of 1-30 billion tonnes per year of CO2 by 2050. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecast rates of 7.6bn tonnes per year by that point.

The ICL researchers criticised the IPCC projections for overlooking certain limitations, in their publication, “The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century”.

The team considered hydrocarbon industry trends and geology to estimate global CO2 storage rates for 2050. In their latest study, they proposed a “realistic aim” of a maximum global storage rate of 16bn tpy.

But even this is too high. Based on current government plans, the study suggested global storage would reach 5-6bn tpy by 2050.

So, higher than the IPCC’s lowest range, but nowhere near the upper range. And, crucially, capacity falls short of the IEA’s more sober analysis.

The IEA has said the existing project pipeline suggests capacity could reach 615 million tpy by 2030. However, the agency’s net zero emissions scenario calls for 1bn tpy by 2030.

Effective storage

A main limitation is the variability of geological reservoirs worldwide. Some previous CO2 storage models involve no geological constraints or very few. Meanwhile, others incorporate limits on the total CO2 storage rate or increasing storage costs over time.

Market conditions and government decisions influence faster scale-up, as does the availability of infrastructure. CCS requires a clear understanding of revenue models to access sufficient financing.

As a result of these missing details, some models have overestimated the industry’s viability. There will always be uncertainties in projections, but more confidence can be gained through project development and geological tests (like total pore volume in the lab), hydraulic well tests and improved simulations of CO2 flow.

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report “vastly overestimate” deployment feasibility in China, Indonesia and South Korea, the researchers said.

Path to growth

In Europe, research suggests that effective storage resources total 260bn tonnes. This includes onshore and offshore EU member states, with the UK’s offshore able to hold 78bn tonnes and Norway 94bn tonnes.

Those two countries also have a history of oil production. These can show a potential trajectory for CCS pick up. In the UK, oil production grew at 120% in the first decade before slowing. Norway, meanwhile, sustained consistent growth at 35% for two decades.

The researchers used the Storage Resource Catalogue from the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative (OGCI), concluding the CO2 storage industry could be comparable to the existing hydrocarbon industry.

ICL research postgraduate and lead author Yuting Zhang described the UK’s North Sea oil production since 1974 as explosive.

“These rates are quite extraordinary in their magnitude, showing how a mature industry could develop new projects fast,” she told E-FWD. “Although distinct, the sustained magnitude and duration of these growth rates from the hydrocarbon sector provide valuable snapshots of the market conditions that could be required to drive the deployment of CCS technology.”

European targets

The European Union’s Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA) sets out a plan for 50mn tpy of CCS by 2030. By 2050, the group may need to capture around 450mn tpy of CO2.

In the UK North Sea, an estimated 78bn tonnes of geological storage capacity looks promising, but is it enough for Europe? In a 2022 study, ICL researchers quantified the UK North Sea’s storage resource potential as a regional hub for EU emissions using logistic modelling.

Lead author Zhang told E-FWD that the combined storage demand in the EU and UK would reach 505mn tonnes per year in 2050.

“This entire amount can be stored annually within the UK North Sea or the Norwegian North Sea alone. These storage resource bases are sufficiently large to support a steady annual growth rate of 10-15%, meeting the projected 2050 storage needs.”

Good news: the UK North Sea’s geological constraints would only limit these estimates if they were hugely overstated. This doesn’t seem to be the case, since they are justified by well data and seismic. The co-authors stated that only if the resource base was around 10% of the estimated amount would storage availability limit mitigation plans.

“Modelled plans are not constrained by CO2 storage availability and can be accommodated by the resources of offshore UK or Norway alone,” Zhang said.

Achieving this goal quickly depends on safe injection rates and the time to finance, construct and develop storage projects.

Certainty through simple models

The ICL team have shown that simple models can lead to more plausible scale-up trajectories. This is despite the complex variables influencing potential.

Zhang clarified the value of this politically. The study “shows certainty on the scale of achievable CO2 storage”, providing “direct guidance for policymakers to create incentive frameworks and financing to stay on this path”.

This helps fine-tune targets. But policies will play an important role. The US has good examples, Zhang explained, having published a study last year. “There are policy frameworks, like the 45Q tax credit in the US, that incentivise projects to store CO2 within dedicated storage.”

Too slow?

Realistic aims will aid growth plans, but so will speedy government support with a solid policy framework. The biggest hurdle in the UK has been a slowdown in creating an attractive business environment for viable CCS projects.

A major criticism is that the UK government has been slow in supporting CCS policies. Despite plans announced years ago, the country is still waiting for final investment decisions (FIDs) on significant CO2 storage.

The first funding competition opened in 2007, but the government cancelled it in 2011. A second launched in 2012, which was cancelled in 2015. This stop-start pattern shows a lack of commitment and has raised concerns this may recur.

High potential, high roadblocks

The UK CCS Research Community has reported that there is 16-20bn tonnes of storage capacity in depleted hydrocarbon fields. Including saline aquifers provides another 19-716 Gt, it has said, equating to over 500 years of storage of the country’s emissions.

There need to be established ways to regulate, finance and insure the industry, with thorough environmental regulations. It is difficult for projects to operate without those regulations. New projects rely on them, leading to a chicken-and-egg conundrum.

Lengthy, complex application processes slow things down.

Given this, Storage Lead Professor Stuart Haszeldine at the University of Edinburgh told E-FWD that time was limited.

“The UK decided, in 2018, to develop carbon capture on industrial sites. By 2024, there is a well-written suite of grant funding and storage licences, but no CO2 will go into the ground until close to 2030. And the price per tonne will be more than the request by BP in its 2006 CCS proposal to the UK government.”

Denmark shows a different way of doing things. That country announced a CCS policy in 2022, with offshore storage licence awards and cross-border transfer agreements following.

“CO2 pilot injection started in 2023, with a state holding of 20% in each licence (similar to GB Energy perhaps?). North Italy has just achieved a similar feat, with CO2 injected to a depleted gas field within 12 months,” Haszeldine said.

What can be done?

Progress has seemed slow compared with continental Europe, but some inspiration can be taken. Haszeldine suspects the UK may accelerate.

“European CO2 storage is being accelerated by a mandated Net Zero Industry Act from central government, requiring 50mn tonnes per year injected by 2030.”

He said the UK could “think about a mandate on petroleum developers to take back and store the carbon emitted every year? That would be more like action to solve a climate emergency.”

In November, UKCCSRC will host a conference in Sheffield to discuss the broader industry picture amid challenges in establishing CCS in the UK.

On the change

Previous policies and programmes failed to demonstrate CCS market potential in the UK. But the situation is changing.

New policies for Track 1 and Track 2 CCS projects aim to have CCS sites operating soon, giving the industry confidence to accelerate carbon storage projects. The UK North Sea could become a key hub for the European CCS market, with government support and investment.

The government’s official statement shows clear interest in creating an attractive CCUS market by 2035. This has renewed commitment to CCS deployment through its £20 billion funding.

The historic growth of the hydrocarbon industry sets an example for CCS in the UK North Sea. There are sufficient storage capacities to meet Europe’s needs. To achieve goals, planners must consider speed, geological and socio-economic factors, ICL researchers have shown.

It’s important to ground projection figures realistically, but the potential ahead shouldn’t be slowed by a lack of decisive government action. Setting business models and policies to establish a market can foster confidence in plans and the UK’s CCS industry.

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