There is a green North Sea challenge for UK and Norway as maritime nations. But there are also new ways of working – not least in regards to a relationship with the EU.

The world’s oceans have always been about power – politically, economically, and militarily. Until recently, the arena for this exercise of power has been the oceans’ surface and the accessible and resource rich levels close to the surface. The UK and Norway each have their significant historical place in this exercise of power.

A historical reference to the military dominance at sea can be found in the lyrics “Rule, Britannia! Britannia Rule the Waves” from 1740, a tribute to the British Royal Navy’s dominance of the world’s oceans over several hundred years.

Economic power has also triggered poetry, such as Norway’s national poet Bjørnstjerne Bjørnson. In the Norwegian Seamen’s Song from 1868, he writes that “Honor and power it sought, – And these the white sails brought.” An ode to the Norwegian merchant fleet’s dominance at sea.

New structures

But the sea is not what it once was. The new power structures are developing in the deep. Simply put, it consists of an increasingly extensive network of critical infrastructure.

A large and growing number of fibre-optic cables run between the US and Europe.

In the North Sea, which stretches from the Norwegian Sea in the north to France in the south, there are, in addition to offshore installations, an extensive system of gas pipelines. There is a particular proliferation between Norway, the continent and the UK, oil pipelines between the offshore fields and Norway. There are also an increasing number of subsea interconnectors for the exchange of electricity between countries.

The future increase in deep-water infrastructure in the North Sea will largely consist of interconnectors. The EU’s ambition is to develop offshore wind farms in the North Sea equivalent to 300 gigawatts by 2050. It will develop a North Sea Grid which links wind farms, energy islands and land along the entire North Sea.

Wind ambitions

Norway and the UK are both large North Sea countries. Both have ambitions in offshore wind, but the UK is significantly ahead, with current production of about 15 GW.

Norway has come a long way in floating offshore wind with Hywind Tampen, the world’s largest floating wind farm. The British have ambitions for 50 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Norway has ambitions for 30 GW by 2040.

The two countries also have something else in common, namely that both are outside the European Union and therefore have less influence in the group than its member states.

That is relevant along two axes. One is about security, which is high on the agenda after Russia went to full-scale war against Ukraine. This is the most serious security threat to Europe since the Second World War.

The second axis concerns the further development of the North Sea as a green power plant. At the same time, we believe the EU is undoubtedly the most important driving force for renewable investments in our part of the world.

Security

The security issue has been handled on an overarching political level. After some initial confusion, where Norway was forgotten, six North Sea countries signed a declaration on joint efforts to protect underwater infrastructure in the North Sea. The declaration was signed on April 9 this year by the UK, Norway, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany.

Military surveillance and security are a NATO concern more than an EU concern. It contributed to the joint declaration of the six NATO countries.

One driver has undoubtedly been the experiences from the Baltic Sea, with the explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines outside Bornholm in September 2022. Further heightening concerns was damage in the Gulf of Finland, in October 2023, to a gas pipeline and a telecommunications cable, linking Finland and Estonia.

Renewable driver

When it comes to the development of the North Sea as a green power plant, British and Norwegian influence might be less dramatic, but more demanding. As mentioned, the EU is the most important driving force for renewable investments in Europe, also in the North Sea. These ambitions stem to a lesser extent from Norway or the UK.

Norway is particularly at a disadvantage when it comes to influence in this area. Even with the EEA agreement, Norway is an outsider. But the biggest challenge is that Norway so far has chosen not to tie its plans for offshore wind to Europe’s.

The reason is the political situation, where the government’s junior partner, the Centre Party, is deeply sceptical of interconnectors. It wants to scrap two of Norway’s four interconnectors to Denmark. The party is also against the EU’s Fourth Energy Package and there is considerable opposition in Norway to being further integrated into the EU’s internal energy market.

The UK does not face the same limitations, with Brexit the British also left the EU’s internal energy market. This meant that the UK was no longer bound by the strict requirements on energy solidarity that apply within the EU, and that are particularly important when it comes to gas supply.

New ways forward

Even with similar energy policy goals, new ways of regulating EU-UK co-operation had to be found.

On an overall level this is regulated in the EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement, which was ratified on May 1, 2021.

However, the energy part of the agreement only applies until June 30, 2026. It can be extended annually after that, but it will undoubtedly lead to tugs-of-war and conflicts of interest between the parties.

Despite all these challenges EU, the UK and Norway share common views on the North Sea’s importance as a green power plant.

For the UK and Norway, the largest North Sea countries, with skills and experience of working in the North Sea over the last half century it will be particularly important to have the will and power to influence this development. The two countries cannot settle for a place in the EU’s back seat.

It is time for Norway and Britain to work together – identifying the priorities for development and direct trade and for research to reduce costs. One area may be in carbon capture, repurposing hydrocarbon infrastructure for a new role in a lower carbon environment.

Between us, we can create a new industry – with high skills and high environmental standards. We can harness the power and potential of the oceans, not just in the North Sea, but across the world.

Co-authored by Nick Butler, visiting professor and chair of the Kings Policy Institute at Kings College London. Butler spent 29 years with BP, including five years as group vice president for policy and strategy

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