analysis
#TheGrid: Joining the dots to expand interconnection
There is no energy transition without an expanded grid, so building new interconnections is mission-critical to the UK’s net zero delivery plan.
Myriad problems prevent faster infrastructure deployment, and second order effects arising from failure to address these are rippling up supply chains. E-FWD members discussed the bottlenecks and how to unblock them at the latest in-person event, The Grid, in Aberdeen in June.
- Communication: The energy industry must show, and explain to people, the need for grid transformation
- Vision: A clearer vision would attract new entrants to the grid sector, meeting the need for more hands on deck
- Plan & deliver: The supply chain is squeezed so if the UK intends to meet its goals it must demonstrate practical steps in pursuit of the vision
The state of interconnection in the UK is such that the grid is a blocker, rather than an enabler, of decarbonised energy. A pathway to change has been set out, but there are numerous challenges to how it is delivered.
The single greatest challenge is the lack of public understanding around how the grid must change. The scale is extraordinary.
DNV has predicted UK transmission must more than quadruple, to 140,000 km by 2050, while distribution should nearly triple to 1.4 million km. In order to transform the grid, the consultancy called for a trebling of investment from historic levels.
The vision thing
The UK does have a vision to expand its grid capacity. In March, National Grid Energy System Operator (ESO) set out a plan to invest £54 billion to decarbonise power by 2035. This sees major expansion to offshore wind farms in Scotland, with power transmitted around the country by a new “spine”.
Beyond this, the government has approved a new National Energy System Operator (NESO), bringing in National Grid. NESO will be charged with providing a holistic view of the entire system, including gas and hydrogen.
The UK vision for this is world leading. No other country has made such a bid for whole system planning, so there are no examples to work towards.
Participants in the E-FWD tent in early June discussed how there was a lack of understanding from people – and politicians – on how the grid would change. Companies attempting to build out infrastructure often fail to communicate the broader imperatives to people. This lack of comprehension slows progress in a number of areas, not least in planning.
There is broad political consensus around the need to decarbonise power and, therefore, the need for new grid investments. It is the scale of change that gets lost.
The autumn statement from last year highlighted some plans around grids and electricity. Meanwhile, Labour has made commitments around removing the grid obstacles to clean energy projects.
Line up
One challenge is in managing the grid queue. The average time to receive a new connection is 14 years and the aim, set out in late 2023, was to bring this down to seven.
There are more than 700 GW in the grid queue at present, with more being submitted all the time. Developers tend to apply for a spot speculatively, with the only barrier to entry being one of a fairly modest cost.
While it is generators that have most often complained about the queue, they must also shoulder their share of responsibility. It may be prudent as a developer to submit applications for all potential projects, but the net result is the system freezes up from being overloaded.
National Grid has set out plans to reform the queue. It has the stated aim of tackling “zombie” projects that will never actually be developed. It is tightening the rules, requiring projects to demonstrate they have achieved certain objectives – such as securing planning permission and land – before taking a place.
Developers have complained they have little understanding of how National Grid operates. Stripping out the deadwood from the queue and allowing National Grid to focus on the most appropriate projects should allow the two sides to have a better understanding of each other.
National Grid could also distribute information better, for instance via digital twins. This would allow them to demonstrate how the grid will change over time – and how to work alongside it.
One result of a move to tighten restrictions on the grid is that smaller developers will be squeezed out. Such a rule change will make speculative bids harder and put more risk on developers.
People power
Another of the challenges for National Grid, which compounds its queue management and communication problem, is lack of personnel.
This will be exacerbated following the launch of NESO, given the need to bring in a host of new disciplines and incorporate them.
National Grid employs around 22,000 people already, but is aware of the arising skills problem. For the expansion to succeed, it will need to be able to attract both young people but also – as the organisation evolves – from other disciplines.
The UK has an array of skilled professionals, but they need to be made aware of the prospect of this major infrastructure buildout in order to attract them to key roles.
This question of people and timing links in to the challenge around the supply chain. Without clarity around project awards, plans will slip. There is global competition for this sort of capacity and timing will be crucial. For instance, there are only three HVDC manufacturers in the world.
The UK must be able to secure capacity and then not miss its timelines. If politicians backtrack or reconsider plans – as the country has seen on HS2 – the chances of achieving timely decarbonisation will be lost.
The grid has made progress and is moving in the right direction by clearing out zombie projects from the queue. But the UK is a relatively small market. If the country misses its shot at securing capacity, at making the case for this grid expansion, the opportunity will be squandered.