It has often been said that Aberdeen’s fortunes rise and fall with the oil price. Will that continue to be the case as we enter 2025? Or are the city’s fortunes now blowing in the wind?

The answer, in my opinion, is both.

I am excited about what the next 12 months holds for this region and its key employment markets.

After years of dithering and delay in the energy transition, I think this will be the year that procrastination will be replaced by progress; and when infighting gives way to infrastructure.

Evidence of this is already all around us, and there is some seriously clever stuff taking place in offices and ‘big sheds’ around the north-east of Scotland right now.

Into action

Faced with one of the biggest engineering challenges the world has ever undertaken, people in this part of the world have got to work.

In the past few months alone, we were involved in the the launch of Ventex, the UK’s first climate tech Venture Studio, which is looking to repurpose the supply chain. There has also been BP and Aberdeen City Council award the first contracts for a hydrogen hub in the Energy Transition Zone.

Green Volt is a 50:50 joint venture between Aberdeen-based Flotation Energy and Norwegian firm Vårgrønn. It will soon start building Europe’s first commercial-scale floating windfarm, off the Aberdeenshire coast.

Meanwhile, energy storage company Statera Energy is moving forward with plans to develop the Kintore hydrogen project, also in Aberdeenshire.

These are the green shoots of a green energy revolution. These are the foundations that are being laid in the north-east of Scotland.

Add to that Great British Energy, which will soon be headquartered in Aberdeen. This is expected to employ at least 300, but possibly 1,000 people here.

Industry experts expect it to have convening power, leveraging other key players in the clean energy sector. It will also have £8.3 billion to invest. The legislation that will formally create the company and release the investment is currently passing through parliament.

It is clear there is huge focus on job creation in renewables, but we all know that is going to take time. So, what does that mean for the oil and gas sector?

Maturing debate

While it is easy to feel gloomy amid the current rhetoric, it is important to look at the fundamentals underpinning the case for continued production in the North Sea. Despite everything, they remain strong.

Cutting North Sea production simply leaves us ever more reliant on importing energy, potentially doubling or trebling our emissions in the process. That is both environmental and economic madness.

It is an irrefutable fact that we will still need oil and gas in our energy mix all the way out to 2050 and beyond, albeit in decreasing amounts.

So, as the net zero and energy transition debate matures, I expect the conversation to centre on where we get the oil and gas required to power our economy from. For the UK, that needs to be the North Sea.

I will leave you with the thought which gives me most comfort.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has asked the public to judge him on five things when his government reaches the end of its first term. Economic growth and a successful energy transition are among them.

He has pledged to make the UK the green energy superpower. Therefore, the road to re-election runs through Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire.

If he wants a second term – and he does – then he cannot afford a chaotic and disorderly energy transition.

So, expect to see more pragmatic policy as the energy transition takes shape in 2025.

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