The SNP has become more accommodating to oil and gas under John Swinney
Party grandees have supported projects, citing the need for jobs to continue
Grassroots campaigners are still bitterly divided on hydrocarbons. As such, the SNP in a fix as it works towards the 2026 elections

When it asked the electorate in September 2014 if Scotland should become an independent country, the Scottish National Party (SNP) was very much a fan of fossil fuels.

Its then leader and first minister, Alex Salmond, had long made the case that North Sea discoveries were “Scotland’s oil”. He promised the electorate wealth and prosperity on the back of it.

The numbers were disputed – Wood Group founder Sir Ian Wood, in particular, called them fantastical. But Salmond put the value of Scotland’s reserves at £1.5 trillion.

Oil and gas was not the basis for independence, he said, but it was “a huge bonus”.

But 10 years is a long time in politics. Fast forward to 2023 and Salmond’s successor, Nicola Sturgeon, was taking a hard line on fossil fuels.

Her government had declared a climate emergency in the run up to Glasgow-based COP26. She had also promised to hit net zero in 2045 rather than 2050 like elsewhere in the UK. So in January last year she announced a presumption against new oil and gas exploration.

The controversial Rosebank project was particularly in her sights. The management of drilling licences is reserved to Westminster. But Sturgeon said Scottish ministers could no longer support the previous position of “maximising economic recovery” of fossil-fuel reserves.

Repent at leisure

Two first ministers later, that stance is softening. Earlier this year, John Swinney replaced Sturgeon’s successor Humza Yousaf. Almost immediately, he said the government’s position had changed. From then on, he said, the government should assess applications for drilling licences on a case-by-case basis.

The sector should “contribute to the transition to net zero”. His government would seek to “work closely and carefully with the oil and gas sector to ensure its sustainability”.

It is not going down well with some of the SNP faithful, though. The party’s annual conference took place in Edinburgh at the weekend. Delegates spent so much time heatedly debating resolutions relating to what the just transition should look like in Scotland that organisers had to push another – on the effective use of tax powers – into the next day.

One of those resolutions, put forward by acting climate action minister Alasdair Allan and Falkirk East MSP Michelle Thomson, said the SNP must focus on “ensuring the energy sector is supported into a renewable energy future that meets our net zero ambitions”.

It noted “with alarm” UK Labour’s “short-sighted” energy strategy. This, it said, “threatens to repeat Thatcher’s decimation of mining communities in the North East of Scotland”.

Another was tabled by the West Fife and Coastal Villages branch. This called on the government to encourage private sector investment in renewables and to ensure those investments are “targeted in a manner that is complimentary [sic] to our ethical and environmental ambitions”.

Finding jobs on the fringes

Both resolutions ultimately passed. A number of conference fringes echoed the tone of the debate, in which many delegates were openly hostile about the country’s continuing reliance on fossil fuels. Campaign groups Global Justice Now, Uplift and Friends of the Earth Scotland hosted one such meeting.

SNP politicians including Stephen Flynn, the MP for Aberdeen South who also leads the party’s Westminster group, have been vocal about the need for the North Sea oil and gas industry to carefully wind down as the renewables sector is wound up. Protecting jobs is key. Flynn has taken the position that incentives to invest in renewables should go hand in hand with the reduction in North Sea production.

Speaking at the fringe, whose theme was “how Scotland can deliver a rapid and just transition away from fossil fuels”, Uplift executive director Tessa Khan agreed protecting jobs was a priority. She said the “race to establish the renewable energy superpowers of the future” is on and that this creates “great opportunities for Scotland”.

Unlike Flynn, who believes further North Sea developments should be considered on a case-by-case basis, she is completely opposed to new development of any kind.

She does not buy the argument that North Sea production will heighten the UK’s energy security, she said. Khan does not “think there’s any justification for any new projects”.

Exports not enough

“The vast majority of what’s left is oil and the vast majority of that will be exported,” she said. “Because [it’s being extracted by] private companies, the public doesn’t have any power to control where it goes. To say the North Sea is a panacea for our energy concerns is completely ill conceived. Pointing to the North Sea for an energy security solution is not a good argument.”

Polling commissioned by Uplift in August appears to bear out support for Khan’s position. Of SNP voters, 95% are concerned with climate change and 45% believe the UK government should stop issuing drilling licences. The poll also shows scepticism about who is benefiting from production.

Her fellow panellist Rosie Hampton, just transition campaigner at Friends of the Earth Scotland, went further. She said not only that the majority of companies operating in the North Sea invest nothing in renewables but that some of the projects they support case more harm than good. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is, she claimed, both “dodgy” and a “dangerous distraction” that’s been “failing for decades”.

Cliff edge

The comments were welcomed by the small number of delegates in the room. They were also openly hostile to OEUK external relations manager Jenny Stanning when she asked the panel a question.

Stanning wanted to know how the speakers could position their vision for the future of energy as a just transition when “what you are describing sounds like a cliff edge”. The vision would end oil and gas production before renewables are ready to fully fill the void, she said, leaving “90,000 people fearing for their jobs” in the process.

A man in the audience angrily told Stanning the companies OEUK represents are failing to invest in renewables. Hampton’s response was to ask her if she’d ever met any workers.

The Uplift poll shows SNP members are more antagonistic towards the oil and gas industry. But a survey by True North before the election claimed much broader support from the Scottish people for domestic hydrocarbons.

Of those polled for True North, 75% responded that Scotland should meet demand for oil and gas from its own production.

Banners out

The angry tone was carried over into another fringe, hosted by Holyrood magazine and focusing on the topic “how can a homegrown energy transition boost skills and investment in Scotland”. The session featured a panel of OEUK CEO David Whitehouse and the SNP’s Flynn and Allan. It was interrupted before it had even begun by banner-wielding delegates chanting “fossil fuels out of politics”.

When the session did get under way, Whitehouse said the Scottish government must be louder in its support of the offshore sector in order for the just transition to be delivered. He noted there was a feeling among those operating in the sector that Scotland “doesn’t want our investment”.

“We have such an opportunity in Scotland, and we have such a brilliant workforce that do brilliant things – and I have not heard the government coming out and being supportive of that as loud as it should be, not for two years. That’s what we need,” he said.

“We could really do with some loud voices that say, ‘we have a fantastic opportunity here in Scotland, and the way we’re going to deliver it is by doing it together, breaking down barriers and getting people working together and building on our strengths’. If the Scottish government would simply say that out loud, that would be really helpful.”

*SNP leader in Westminster, Stephen Flynn, MP for Aberdeen South*

Getting the message

The energy transition is not happening “as quickly as [it] needs to”, Flynn said. Flynn said the people of Aberdeen were “very concerned” about what the future holds for them. “We are forever talking about [the] potential [of the transition]. Let’s get on and do it,” he added.

Parliament is returning from recess this week. The SNP is rumoured to be on the brink of publishing its long-awaited Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan. How the Scottish Government plans to get on and do things will hopefully soon become clear.

But, as the SNP conference has shown, how it handles the messaging around that is going to be key to the plan’s success.

The different polls show different attitudes – but they also highlight the importance of how such questions are asked.

The general election was a bruising experience for the SNP. As it heads towards Scottish elections in 2026, it must find a way to appeal to party faithful and prospective voters alike.

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